Economic downturns and land-use change: A spatial analysis of urban transformations in Rome (Italy) using a geographically weighted principal component analysis

Globally, processes that drive urbanization have mostly evolved within economic down-turns. Economic crises have been more severe and frequent, particularly in the Mediterranean region. However, studies on the recession effects on urbanization are limited. The present study explores possible differences in spatial direction and intensity of land-use change trajectories at two time intervals (2006–2012, 2012–2018) using high-resolution Copernicus Land Urban Atlas images in the Rome metropolitan area. To this aim, a landscape ecology classical approach based on land-use metric analysis combined with a multivariate spatial analysis has been carried out. Results have identified different land-use change patterns during expansion and recession. “Greening”, defined as the conversion of urban marginal areas into croplands and forests, increased during the recession. At the same time, the rate of urban expansion into rural areas decreased, thus indicating a beneficial effect of economic downturns in reducing urban sprawl.